Jiang Qiang-Shanghai Cable Research Institute senior engineer spoke

《China cable import and export status analysis》

In combination with various data of China's wire and cable import and export, the report analyzes China's cable import and export from the aspects of introduction of China's cable import and export trade during the 13th Five Year Plan period, analysis of various data of China's cable import and export in 2018, changes in China's cable export pattern brought about by the "the Belt and Road", changes in China's cable export pattern brought about by the "the Belt and Road", and future prospects.

The report points out that the average annual growth rate of China's cable import and export trade volume from 2016 to 2019 was 1.8%, and the average annual growth rate of import and export trade volume was 2.5%. In 2018, China's cable import and export trade volume exceeded 30 billion US dollars for the first time, reaching 30.1 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; Exports increased by 6.9%, while imports increased by 9.7%. In 2018, China's cable import and export trade volume reached 2.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Exports increased by 2.4%, while imports increased by -1.0%.

2018

In 2018, the US China cable import and export surplus reached 3.8 billion US dollars, and the impact of the US China trade war on China was even more severe. Although the export of domestic cable products to the United States can also be rebalanced through transshipment trade, this will undoubtedly increase the procurement costs of American suppliers, and China's cable price advantage will be significantly reduced. Similarly, the impact of increased tariffs on US cable imports will also shrink.

2019

The United States is China's largest cable trade import and export country, accounting for over 16% of the total trade volume. The escalating trade war between China and the United States has had a significant impact on China's imports and exports in 2019. Although the changes in RMB interest rates and the cultivation of new markets during this period have been positive for import and export trade, the aforementioned benefits cannot offset the negative effects of the US China trade war in the short term. It is expected that China's cable import and export trade will experience negative growth in 2019; The import and export volume of cables between China and the United States will further decrease.

Dividend estimate:

The downward trend in cable trade between China and the United States from January to June 2019 has become apparent, and there are no signs of improvement. This will be a "heavy" blow to some companies with the United States as the main market, and it is expected that cable import and export trade between China and the United States will continue to decline in the next 1-2 years; The export opportunities brought by the "the Belt and Road" are gradually highlighted.

The "the Belt and Road" covers Asia Pacific, Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa and other regions, including 65 countries, with a total population of more than 4.4 billion, accounting for 63% of the world's population, and a total economy of more than 20 trillion dollars, accounting for 30% of the global economy. Most of these countries are emerging economies and developing countries, and are generally in an upward phase of economic development. The demand for cables is in a long-term growth trend, but there will be some differences in the opportunities of each region in the short term. It is expected that ASEAN, Central and Eastern Europe, West Asia and other regions will grow more steadily, and the growth will be significantly higher than the overall level of China's cable exports; The structure of China's cable export products urgently needs to be upgraded.

Current situation:

In the current new situation where international trade protectionism is prevalent, Chinese cable companies located at the low end of their product value chain are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain their extensive export growth model, and their exports need to shift from winning by quantity to winning by quality. In the past 30 years of global economic integration competition, some leading domestic cable companies have been able to develop and grow, and have already established a foundation for technological progress and industrial upgrading. In the future, the export of high value-added products will be a direction for the future.

Source: Wire and Cable Report